Browse markets
Real events, objectively resolved. These feed the questions inside Parlay rooms.
Macrosoon
Fed decision at the July 2026 FOMC?
FOMC, July 29, 2026
50%
Hold
Hold50%
Cut 25 bps46%
Hike4%
3.80M volJul 29
Macrosoon
US CPI above 3% YoY in the July print?
60%
No
No60%Yes40%
1.45M volAug 12
Macrosoon
Fed cuts by the September meeting?
Cumulative cut by 16 Sep 2026
88%
No
Yes12%No88%
1.42M volSep 16
Macrosoon
US recession called in 2026?
NBER or two negative GDP quarters
73%
No
Yes27%No73%
1.24M volDec 31
Macrosoon
S&P 500 above 5,600 on July 4 week?
Last close before July 4
96%
Yes
Yes96%No4%
1.05M volin 4d
Macrosoon
Next US jobs report above consensus?
Nonfarm payrolls vs survey
53%
At / below
Above47%At / below53%
980K volin 2d
Macrosoon
Brent crude above $80 by Aug 1?
64%
No
No64%Yes36%
980K volAug 1
Macroopen
S&P 500 above 5,400 at month-end?
30 Jun close
97%
Yes
Yes97%No3%
920K voltoday · 20:00 UTC
Macroopen
Gold above $3,500/oz on 30 Jun?
Spot close
96%
Yes
Yes96%No4%
880K voltoday · 21:00 UTC
Macrosoon
US core PCE above 3.0% YoY in the June print?
June data, released late July
72%
Above
Above72%At / below28%
780K volJul 31
Macroopen
US 10Y yield above 4.5% on 30 Jun?
Treasury close
64%
No
Yes36%No64%
720K voltoday · 20:00 UTC
Macrosoon
Warsh mentions rate hikes in next presser?
Next scheduled Fed press conference
72%
Yes
Yes72%No28%
720K volJul 30
Macrosoon
Gold above $4,000/oz on Jul 15?
Spot close
62%
Yes
Yes62%No38%
720K volJul 15
Macrosoon
ISM Manufacturing above 50 on July 1?
June data
62%
Below 50
Above 5038%Below 5062%
680K volin 1d
Macroopen
Brent crude above $80 on 30 Jun?
Front-month close
97%
No
Yes3%No97%
640K voltoday · 20:00 UTC
Macrosoon
Next US CPI above consensus?
Headline YoY vs. survey median
66%
At / below
Above34%At / below66%
612K volJul 11
Macrosoon
ECB cuts at its next meeting?
Governing Council decision
56%
Hold
Cut44%Hold56%
610K volJul 23
Macroopen
DXY above 105 at month-end?
US Dollar Index
98%
No
Yes2%No98%
580K voltoday · 20:00 UTC
Macrosoon
ISM Services above 50 on July 3?
June data
72%
Above 50
Above 5072%Below 5028%
580K volin 3d
Macrosoon
US 10Y yield above 4.4% on 3 Jul?
Treasury close
60%
No
Yes40%No60%
540K volin 4d
Macrosoon
US jobless claims above 225k next week?
Week ending Jul 2
58%
Below
Above42%Below58%
520K volin 3d
Macroopen
Consumer Confidence beats consensus?
Conference Board
54%
Miss
Beat46%Miss54%
480K voltoday · 14:00 UTC
Macroresolved
Fed decision today: rates?
FOMC statement, 17 Jun 2026 · 2:00pm ET
Result
Hold
Hold✓ won79%
Cut 25bps19%
Hike2%
8.94M volresolved
Macroresolved
US core PCE above 2.7% YoY?
May print · final
Result
Above
Above ✓40%At / below60%
820K volresolved
Macroresolved
US jobless claims above 230k?
Weekly initial claims · final
Result
Below
Above45%Below ✓55%
560K volresolved
Macroresolved
Q1 GDP revised upward?
Third estimate · final
Result
Up
Up ✓42%Not up58%
520K volresolved