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Real events, objectively resolved. These feed the questions inside Parlay rooms.
Macrosoon
Fed cuts by the September meeting?
Cumulative cut by 16 Sep 2026
88%
No
Yes12%No88%
1.42M volSep 16
Macrosoon
US recession called in 2026?
NBER or two negative GDP quarters
73%
No
Yes27%No73%
1.24M volDec 31
Macroresolved
Fed decision today: rates?
FOMC statement, 17 Jun 2026 · 2:00pm ET
Result
Hold
Hold✓ won79%
Cut 25bps19%
Hike2%
8.94M volresolved
Macroresolved
Fed decision at the July 2026 FOMC?
FOMC, July 29, 2026
Result
Hold
Hold✓ won50%
Cut 25 bps46%
Hike4%
3.80M volresolved
Macroresolved
US CPI above 3% YoY in the July print?
Result
No
No ✓60%Yes40%
1.45M volresolved
Macroresolved
S&P 500 above 5,600 on July 4 week?
Last close before July 4
Result
Yes
Yes ✓96%No4%
1.05M volresolved
Macroresolved
Next US jobs report above consensus?
Nonfarm payrolls vs survey
Result
At / below
Above47%At / below ✓53%
980K volresolved
Macroresolved
Brent crude above $80 by Aug 1?
Result
No
No ✓64%Yes36%
980K volresolved
Macroresolved
S&P 500 above 5,400 at month-end?
30 Jun close
Result
Yes
Yes ✓97%No3%
920K volresolved
Macroresolved
Gold above $3,500/oz on 30 Jun?
Spot close
Result
Yes
Yes ✓96%No4%
880K volresolved
Macroresolved
US core PCE above 2.7% YoY?
May print · final
Result
Above
Above ✓40%At / below60%
820K volresolved
Macroresolved
US core PCE above 3.0% YoY in the June print?
June data, released late July
Result
Above
Above ✓72%At / below28%
780K volresolved
Macroresolved
US 10Y yield above 4.5% on 30 Jun?
Treasury close
Result
No
Yes36%No ✓64%
720K volresolved
Macroresolved
Warsh mentions rate hikes in next presser?
Next scheduled Fed press conference
Result
Yes
Yes ✓72%No28%
720K volresolved
Macroresolved
Gold above $4,000/oz on Jul 15?
Spot close
Result
Yes
Yes ✓62%No38%
720K volresolved
Macroresolved
ISM Manufacturing above 50 on July 1?
June data
Result
Below 50
Above 5038%Below 50 ✓62%
680K volresolved
Macroresolved
Gold below $3,800/oz on Jul 15?
Spot close, gold in steep quarterly decline
Result
No
Yes42%No ✓58%
680K volresolved
Macroresolved
Brent crude above $80 on 30 Jun?
Front-month close
Result
No
Yes3%No ✓97%
640K volresolved
Macroresolved
Next US CPI above consensus?
Headline YoY vs. survey median
Result
At / below
Above34%At / below ✓66%
612K volresolved
Macroresolved
ECB cuts at its next meeting?
Governing Council decision
Result
Hold
Cut44%Hold ✓56%
610K volresolved
Macroresolved
DXY above 105 at month-end?
US Dollar Index
Result
No
Yes2%No ✓98%
580K volresolved
Macroresolved
ISM Services above 50 on July 3?
June data
Result
Above 50
Above 50 ✓72%Below 5028%
580K volresolved
Macroresolved
US jobless claims above 230k?
Weekly initial claims · final
Result
Below
Above45%Below ✓55%
560K volresolved
Macroresolved
US 10Y yield above 4.4% on 3 Jul?
Treasury close
Result
No
Yes40%No ✓60%
540K volresolved
Macroresolved
Q1 GDP revised upward?
Third estimate · final
Result
Up
Up ✓42%Not up58%
520K volresolved
Macroresolved
US jobless claims above 225k next week?
Week ending Jul 2
Result
Below
Above42%Below ✓58%
520K volresolved
Macroresolved
Consumer Confidence beats consensus?
Conference Board
Result
Miss
Beat46%Miss ✓54%
480K volresolved