The decathlon of prediction.

Parlay is a peer-to-peer prediction arena on Base. Real markets, crypto, sports, macro, politics, played in fast rooms. You stake $PARLAY, out-predict the table, and take the pot. No house edge, no insider edge.

Browse markets

No insider edge

Each room mixes 4-6 uncorrelated domains. A tip on one question moves only a fraction of the scorecard, so a single edge can't win the room. The same math as portfolio diversification.

No house edge

The house never plays against you and never takes the pot. It burns 2% and keeps a transparent 1%. 97% goes back to the players.

Skill, not luck

Answers are scored with the Brier proper scoring rule. The optimal strategy is to be honest and calibrated, you can't game it by faking confidence.

Pure deflation

Fixed 1B supply, no minting, a 2% burn on every pot. $PARLAY can only get scarcer as volume grows.

The game loop

Join

Enter a room via Quick Match, a private link, or a tournament. Your buy-in is escrowed on-chain.

Predict

The sealed question set is revealed. For each question you set a probability, your confidence, across the outcomes.

Resolve

Every question resolves from a predefined objective source (Pyth, Chainlink, official feeds), frozen at a published snapshot.

Settle

Lowest total Brier penalty wins. 97% to the winners, 2% burned, 1% to the house, enforced on-chain.

How scoring works

For each question you don't pick a side, you set a probability. The Brier penalty is the squared distance between your probabilities and the outcome (0 = confident and right, 2 = confident and wrong). Your room score is the sum across all questions; the lowest total wins. Displayed as Parlay Points on a 0-1000 scale, where higher is better.

Alice

883

penalty 0.70

beats

Bob

815

penalty 1.11

Bob was overconfident and right on one question but poorly calibrated on the rest, exactly what the rule punishes.

The split, every pot

97%

Winners

Burn

House